10 Most Unstable Countries in the World
This article first appeared on the American Enterprise
Institute site.
As George W. Bush and Al Gore debated prior to the 2000
elections, neither Iraq nor Afghanistan merited serious mention. Eight years
later, neither Barack Obama nor John McCain foresaw chaos in Syria and Libya.
Political science is heavy on the political and light on
science. Area studies specialists failed to predict the Islamic Revolution in
Iran, the fall of the Soviet Union, or the Arab Spring.
Policymakers are much more comfortable second-guessing what
they saw in the rearview mirror than gazing over the horizon.
Simply put, the world is unpredictable and the chief
concerns for the next administration might be barely a blip on the radar today.
Putting aside existing conflicts in Libya, Syria, Yemen, the
South China Sea and Ukraine, what crises could blindside the White House in the
next four years? Here are ten countries
and potential crises that should certainly be on the next administration’s
radar screen:
1. The Maldives.
Let’s start small. Few Americans know the Maldives, but
those who do likely think of the low-lying Indian Ocean archipelago as the
archetypal tropical island paradise .
Outside of the gated resorts, however, Islamist radicalism
has been taking root. The Maldivian government has sought US assistance, but
the 3 a.m. phone call has now been ringing unanswered for several years. Might
ISIS seize Western tourists on the island? What would a radical government
willing to accept arms and foreign jihadis mean for trans-Indian Ocean shipping
?
The Maldives might be isolated and far from US shores but
isn’t that what analysts once said of Afghanistan?
2. Mauritania.
Africa has largely been a success story over the past 20
years, but several countries put that progress at risk. Take Mauritania, for
example.
European terror analysts regularly list Mauritania as
perhaps their top, under-the-radar concern. The impoverished country on the
Atlantic coast of Africa has the population of Phoenix, Arizona, spread over an
area twice the size of California.
An Islamic Republic, it is one of the last countries to
embrace slavery in practice if not in law. Its largely ungoverned interior has
become the domain of smugglers and a safe-haven for terrorists. Loose weaponry
from Libya has only poured fuel on the fire.
In many ways, Mauritania has become pre-9/11 Afghanistan ,
just without the diplomatic attention.
3. Algeria.
Africa’s largest country, Algeria should also be one of its
wealthiest. But decades of military rule, statist economic policies, and a
devastating civil war in the 1990s have taken their toll.
Now, southern Algeria is a haven for Al Qaeda in the Islamic
Maghreb. Ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Algeria’s long-time strongman,
will likely not last out the next four years . There is no clear succession
and, even if a president does consolidate political control, he will have to
face down Islamic radicals who might seek to avenge their long suppression.
One Libya has been destabilizing enough. Another so close to
Europe could herald disaster.
4. Ethiopia.
Two and a half times the size of California, Ethiopia is one
of the world’s oldest countries but, despite an increasingly autocratic and
repressive leadership projecting an aura of stability, it looks like it could
be among the world’s most fragile states. While the economy has grown rapidly,
poverty remains the rule as the population also booms.
The agricultural basis of the economy makes Ethiopia
susceptible to drought. State-dominated industries mean it competes poorly with
the outside world. The country is incredibly diverse. In 1991, Eritrea
successfully seceded after a decades-long civil war. While Eritrea had its own
colonial heritage, many other ethnic groups are as resentful of Addis Ababa’s
control and, specifically, ethnic Tigrean domination.
Of greater concern, however, is Ethiopia’s sectarian
division. Muslims already represent a third of the population and are growing
at a faster rate than the Ethiopian Christian population. Should ethnic and
sectarian divisions erupt into open conflict, the resulting insecurity could
make Somalia look like Club Med.
5. Nigeria.
Concerns about stability in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous
country, hit international headlines in 2014 when Boko Haram kidnapped hundreds
of school girls in order to convert them forcibly to Islam and marry them off
to militants. But that’s only one of many problems Nigeria faces.
Boko Haram has thrived against the backdrop of endemic
corruption. By some estimates, Nigeria has lost $400 billion to embezzlement
and corruption since 1960, more than total international aid to Africa during
the same period.
While the international community has largely eradicated
piracy off the coast of Somalia, the problem has skyrocketed in the Gulf of
Guinea, and even that is underreported since states don’t always report
seizures in their territorial waters.
Like Ethiopia, Nigeria faces not only ethnic but sectarian
divisions. Tensions between Muslims and Christians plunged the Ivory Coast into
civil war in the last decade; Nigeria is far more volatile.
If its fragile democracy fails, West Africa may see a
conflict worse than any it has seen in decades.
6. Turkey.
What would it mean if a NATO ally collapsed? Over the past
decade, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has seized dictatorial power. He called
the aborted July 15 coup “a gift from God” and used it as an excuse to declare
a state of emergency and purge more than 100,000 military officers and civil
servants.
But there are indications that there could be more violence
on the horizon . Doğu Perinçek, a former Maoist turned ultra-nationalist
power-broker, leads a shadowy group Turks simply refer to as “the Perinçek
group.”
Some suggest that Perinçek is Turkey’s real defense
minister, behind-the-scenes. In August, Erdoğan hired Adnan Tanriverdi, a
former Special Forces trainer close to Perinçek, to be counsel for the
president.
Simply put, Erdoğan is a marked man and even if he is killed
or forcibly removed, he has so eviscerated the Turkish state that political
chaos will likely follow his death.
10_20_Worst_Countries_01 A Norwegian surveillance aircraft
photo shows Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov off the coast of
Northern Norway on October 17, 2016. Michael Rubin asks whether as Muslims make
up a growing proportion of the conscript-age population, Russia can count on
its own army in any sectarian conflict. 333 Squadron, Norwegian Royal
Airforce/NTB Scanpix/Handout via Reuters
7. Russia.
Like Turkey, Russia is ruled by a strongman who has
substituted the illusion of stability for its substance. When President
Vladimir Putin dies, the Russian people will have to pay the price for his
decades of corruption and mismanagement.
Putin’s lasting legacy will be the vacuum of power
underneath him. Beyond poor governance, however, Russia will soon face
reverberation from its demographic crisis. Its Muslim population is growing as
its ethnic Russian population shrinks. At the same time, it faces Islamist
radicalism not only in Chechnya and Daghestan, but also increasingly among
ethnic Tartars.
Here’s the question: As Muslims make up a growing proportion
of the conscript-age population, can Russia count on its own army in any
sectarian conflict? (On all these issues, the writings of Leon Aron and Anna
Borshchevskaya are must-reads).
8. Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia’s facing a perfect storm: US policy has
empowered and re-resourced Iran. The price of oil has declined precipitously
pushing the Saudi economy to the brink. Saudi Arabia is bogged down in a war in
Yemen which seemingly has no end.
All of this would be bad in the best of circumstances, but
add into the mix a king that very well may have Alzheimer’s and the Kingdom may
face a crisis unlike any it has faced in decades.
Every US administration since Franklin Roosevelt’s has
counted on a strong partnership with Saudi Arabia kingdom to bring stability to
the Middle East and order to the world economy. If Riyadh is unable or
unwilling to continue that partnership, can Washington find a substitute or
fill the gap?
9. Jordan.
Even more than Saudi Arabia, the United States has relied on
Jordan for generations. The Hashemite Kingdom is perhaps America’s closest Arab
ally. But Jordan is in crisis today, even if the Jordanian government will not
admit it.
With the influx of Syrians, Jordan has now absorbed its
third major wave of refugees, putting tremendous strain on the economy. King
Abdullah II is far more popular in Washington and London than he is in some
corners of his own kingdom. And while Western journalists depict Queen Rania as
a romantic and popular figure , she is widely disliked inside Jordan for her
profligate spending.
All of this has created fertile ground for ISIS to
infiltrate Jordan even if it keeps its presence low-key. Should the United
States and its Iraqi and Kurdish allies push ISIS out of Iraq and Syria and
lead more of its fighters to enter Jordan, then the assault on Mosul and Raqqa
might truly be Pyrrhic.
10. China.
Last but not least China, the world’s most populous country.
Some pundits have watched China’s economic boom and sung its praises, even
suggesting that the communist republic’s dictatorial ways might be superior to
those of the United States.
Economic development is uneven: coastal, urban incomes are
exponentially higher than interior, rural incomes. The legacy of decades of
China’s murderous one-child policy are still to come as China faces a
demographic precipice. My colleagues Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors
highlight the implications of stagnation in China.
Simply put, future US administrations should worry less
about the rise of China and more about its decline. Will a faltering China, for
example, lash out militarily as a stagnating Russia has?
The world is a dangerous place. These scenarios may be too
obscure for the 2016 presidential debates, but ensuring the ability of the
United States to react to them should not be.
Michael Rubin is a former Pentagon official whose major
research areas are the Middle East, Turkey, Iran and diplomacy. He instructs
senior military officers deploying to the Middle East and Afghanistan on
regional politics, and teaches classes regarding Iran, terrorism and Arab
politics on board deploying U.S. aircraft carriers. Rubin has lived in
post-revolution Iran, Yemen and both pre- and post-war Iraq, and he spent time
with the Taliban before 9/11. His book Dancing With the Devil: The Perils of
Engaging Rogue Regimes examines a half-century of U.S. diplomacy with rogue
regimes and extremist groups.
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